Can the DOGE Commission Deliver? A Data-Driven Look at Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's Government Reform Claims
President-elect Donald Trump has tasked Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy with running the non-governmental Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Commission here in the US. So far, Trump, Musk, and Ramaswamy have boasted about how the Commission will make the government more efficient and save money, and how easy it will all be.
But Musk and Ramaswamy have made three particular claims that warrant a little data-intensive investigation:
They will cut $2 trillion from the federal budget.
They will cut the federal workforce by 75 percent.
They will get rid of all waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending.
Let’s look at all three and see if the math adds up.
Cut $2 Trillion in Spending
The US federal budget is made up of three primary categories of spending. Mandatory spending is required by law and funds annually enormous programs like Social Security and Medicare (of course, Congress can change the law). Discretionary spending is approved by Congress each year and includes things like border security, education, and transportation. And the government sets aside spending to pay net interest on the federal debt, which currently exceeds more than $35 trillion.
Altogether, these three categories amounted to $6.1 trillion in 2023. (All the data here come from cited sources like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Government Accountability Office. You can click on the links below each graph to explore the interactive versions.)
Let’s simplify and assume a few things:
First, DOGE can’t cut net interest spending ($659 billion)—that spending must happen, or the US will default on its debt.
Second, following promises from President-elect Trump, DOGE isn’t going to cut Social Security or Medicare (total: $2.2 trillion).
Finally, following traditional GOP orthodoxy, DOGE isn’t going to cut defense spending (Trump actually wanted to increase defense spending in his previous term). Discretionary defense spending was listed at $805 billion in fiscal year 2023, but you could also include an additional $242 billion in defense-related mandatory spending (such as military retirement and veterans’ programs).
Altogether, the allocations DOGE is unlikely to cut sum to $3.803 trillion. For DOGE to meet its $2 trillion in cuts goal, it would have to make severe cuts. In fact, everything remaining (in the non-black boxes above) totals $2.241 trillion, meaning only $241 billion in programs could remain (which represents 4 percent of the overall $6.1 trillion).
What could DOGE keep with $241 billion? On the mandatory side, the commission could spare the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP; $135B), Supplemental Security Income (SSI; $60B), and family support and foster care programs ($49B). But those choices would end spending on the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC; $144B) and the Unemployment Insurance (UI; $30B) programs, for example.
Alternatively, DOGE could keep the Earned Income Tax Credit, SSI program, and UI program, but cut foster care programs, SNAP, and more. (The graph below shows just one of five sample scenarios for keeping and cutting these programs; additional scenarios are available at the link.)
If DOGE instead decided to cut all the mandatory programs ($1.2 trillion) and only keep spending on the discretionary side, they could close the Departments of Transportation ($104B), Education ($99B), Veterans Affairs ($87B), Homeland Security ($55), Housing and Urban Development ($51B), and the Environmental Protection Agency ($45B). Unfortunately, closing those agencies only saves $441 billion, so they would still need to find about $360 billion in further savings on that side of the ledger.
Any way you cut it, DOGE cannot cut $2 trillion without having someone forego benefits, or safe water, or breathable air, or security at airports (and in the air), or so much more.
Cut 75 percent of the Federal Workforce
What about the workforce? According to the CBO, the US federal government employed about 2.3 million civilian workers in FY2022, essentially unchanged since 1992 (while the private sector workforce rose from 94 million to 134 million, an increase of about 40 percent). In addition, US armed services employes about 2.1 million uniformed personnel plus another 700,000 “government enterprises,” which tend to be federal contractors, most employed by the US Postal Service.
Overall, the US federal government “employees” 5.1 million people. On the civilian side, those 2.3 million workers cost the government $271 billion in FY2022, about 4.4 percent of total government spending (including net interest). About 60 percent of that total was spent on civilian personnel working at the Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security—these are the people working at TSA, those who manage customs and border inspections, and a large share of the intelligence community. (Contrary to what you might think, about 80 percent of civilian employees do not live in the Washington, DC area.)
If we assume DOGE isn’t going to cut any uniformed personnel (2.1 million people), then the commission has already failed its 75 percent goal. But let’s say DOGE actually meant to cut the federal civilian workforce by 75 percent. To do that, the commission could eliminate all 700,000 federal contractors (yes, including the Postal Service) plus the 1.574 million people working at the Departments of Justice, Treasury, Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration, Agriculture, Interior, and more. Even when that’s done, DOGE will still need to cut 676,000 people, or nearly half, of the civilian employees working at the Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.
Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse
A March 2023 report from the US Government Accountability Office found that 17 agencies reported nearly $250 billion in “improper payments across 82 programs.” About $194 billion (78 percent) was reported by five program areas, including Medicaid ($81 billion), Medicare ($47 billion), the Paycheck Protection Program ($29 billion), Unemployment Insurance ($19 billion), and the Earned Income Tax Credit ($18 billion). Most improper spending came from overpayments in programs like Medicaid and Unemployment Insurance, which are administered not by the federal government but by individual state governments.
Governments should be as efficient as possible, though it’s hard to know whether $250 billion of overpayments in a country of 335 million people and a total budget of $6.1 trillion—representing about 4 percent of the total—is a lot or a little. In any case, eliminating that amount of waste won’t get close to the $2 trillion in savings the DOGE Commission has advertised.
One Last Thing
President-elect Trump has vowed to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which added between $1 trillion and $2 trillion to the national debt over the 2018-2025 period (some estimates put it much higher). With no changes in spending and an extension to those tax cuts, payments for interest on the debt will only grow over the subsequent years, making the DOGE promises even harder to keep.
Where Do Things Go from Here?
The federal budget picture is vast and complicated with lots of different programs and departments under different legal and political categories of spending. My goal here isn’t to argue with programs or jobs should be reduced, but rather to illustrate how massive—and maybe unrealistic—DOGE’s stated goals are.
Even if DOGE does attempt a cutback anywhere close to this scale, the political class will surely offer some pushback. After all, members of Congress rarely object to more federal money flowing to their constituents, whether it’s direct payments or spending on infrastructure. Whether or not the DOGE commission has political support will greatly determine how well they can meet their goals.
Political tea leaves aside, the data-driven context paints a bleak picture, both for DOGE enacting their recommendations and the reality of federal programs if they do. In any case, the data does not lie: politically, economically, and budgetarily, it will not be easy to get their recommendations into action.
Podcast: Captivating Minds: The Science of Storytelling and Attention in a Distracted World with John Medina
I’ve been super excited for this episode of the podcast for a while! This week, I speak with John Medina, author of one of my favorite books on the brain—Brain Rules! You’ll learn how the brain prioritizes meaning over details, driven by survival instincts, and how storytelling effectively taps into these instincts by involving emotional elements.
Friends of Flourish Slack Workspace
I am excited to announce the launch Friends of Flourish, a dedicated Slack workspace for the community of creators, collaborators, and Flourish enthusiasts! Whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, this space is designed to connect you with like-minded individuals who are passionate about transforming data into stories. Come join the growing community to learn more about how to build great data stories in Flourish.
Things I’m Reading
Books
Swift Sword by Doyle Glass
Just read this and can’t stop thinking about it. Glass brings history to
life with the story of the Marines fight for survival. Perfect for anyone who appreciates real-life stories of heroism.
Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection by Charles Duhigg
Articles
Re-reading: Error Bars Considered Harmful: Exploring Alternate Encodings for Mean and Error by Michael Correll and Michael Gleicher
Best practice data visualisation: guidelines and case study by Emily Painter,
Joan Zwar, Sarah Carino, and Zoe Kermonde
“Good Old Days” Bias Following Mild Traumatic Brain Injury by Grant L.IversonPh.D., Rael T. Lange, Brian L. Brooks & V. Lynn and Ashton Rennison
TV & Movies
Silo, Season #2, AppleTV+
Shrinking, AppleTV+
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